The price of gold has performed strongly in recent months: with price growth of more than +20% year-to-date, the precious metal reached the important USD 2,500 per ounce mark for the first time (16 August 2024).
Gold reflects economic and political uncertainties and is therefore also known as the "crisis currency’" There are currently many uncertainties. Supporting factors for the price increase include the prospect of lower interest rates, conflicts in the Middle East or between Russia and Ukraine, as well as continued strong demand from central banks and the use of gold as a hedging instrument against a possible stock market slump. The general weakness of the US dollar and the upcoming presidential election in the USA are also having an impact on the gold price.
Demand remains high! Will the price continue to rise?
Raiffeisen Research sees strong support for gold, but short-term setbacks cannot be ruled out: A price drop below 2,000 US dollars in the near future is unlikely. Due to the rapid rise in recent months, corrections in the gold price are possible, but these do not stand in the way of a long-term upward trend. The analysts remain optimistic about the further development of the gold price for the rest of the year and beyond.
Strengths and weaknesses of the gold price barometer:
➕ The cycle of interest rate hikes is behind us and the markets are focussing on the upcoming interest rate cuts.
➕ The falling but historically still high inflation rates are weighing on real achievable yields, which is fuelling fears of inflation.
➕ Central banks have been acting as net buyers for several years.
➕ Well suited for asset diversification due to the negative correlation with other investment instruments
➕ Geopolitical tensions lead to higher risk aversion and demand for gold; gold benefits from its status as a ‘safe haven’ in times of crisis
➖ Historically still high bond yields due to restrictive monetary policy; however, these will fall again in the medium term
➖ As gold does not generate cash flows, dividends or coupon payments, it cannot be analysed using traditional valuation methods for other risky assets
➖ Gold does not generate interest income, but also has no counterparty risk.
Source: Raiffeisen Research, Gold Report: Here to stay! (June 2024)
Certificates as a supplement or alternative to direct investment
The main arguments in favour of gold-related investment products are as follows:
- If you don't want to buy and store gold directly, you can "place" gold in your custody account as a security.
- For investors with a high need for safety, there are suitable certificates to profit from rising prices and hedge against falling gold prices.
- Certificates are cost-effective and have a clear payout profile.
- With a Raiffeisen Certificate, you remain flexible as you can buy and sell at the current price during trading hours.
Investing in securities is associated with opportunities and risks.
⚠️ Please also note: If a certificate is quoted in US dollars (without currency hedging), euro investors bear a currency risk. Certificates are subject to issuer risk. further information ➨
Find out more about our certificates based on gold underlying:
NEW INVESTMENT ✒️ USD Gold Winner 6 - now in subscription
Payout profile of the certificate: This certificate offers you a repayment of at least 107% at the end of the term (capital protection). In addition, there is the possibility of a higher repayment if the underlying rises sharply. The maximum repayment is 138%.
Further information
- Term: 5 years (September 2024 - September 2029)
- Subscription: until September 20, 2024
- ISIN: AT0000A3E7Z9
- also see: further information about USD Gold Winner 6
SUCCESSFUL REDEMPTION 🔍 USD Gold Winner 2
Review: With the USD Gold Winner 2, investors participated 100% in the positive performance of the gold price up to the cap of 125% (maximum redemption). The underlying rose by +68.4% in the same period, whereby investors were protected against a negative performance of the gold price at 100% of the nominal amount at maturity date.
- Term: 5 years (August 2019 - August 2024)
- Repayment: at 125% ➨ as of August 23, 2024 USD 1,250 per USD 1,000 nominal value are payed out. This equals a yield of 4.56% p.a.
- ISIN: AT0000A28S90
- also see: 📄 redemption sheet (PDF, German)
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